Predict
The essence of the efficient processes
described previously arises from the right decisions being made
at the right time, every time. This is true whether the decisions
arise from the day to day transactions, whether they are to resolve
unusual issues, or whether they are to change the very basis
on which future decisions will be made.
The concept of 'Predict' is about establishing
all that is required to initiate decisions at the right time,
and support the right conclusion, continuously. It goes beyond
measurement, to the interpretation of future consequences and
the development of organisational intelligence. It is about designing
the flow of information to invoke responsibility and to guide
the optimum conclusion.
approach to solving current or potential performance issues.
A key feature in all of the foregoing
aspects of systematic management has been the need for managers
to make decisions:
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to ensure that the purpose of the company is sufficiently aligned |
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to ensure that the company really is promoting the standards and behaviours that it thinks it is, and that those standards and behaviours are the ones it needs |
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to manage the people asset efficiently and effectively |
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to redesign processes to maximise the efficiency and effectiveness of the business. |
What information does the manager
have to help him/her make these decisions? Does your current
information system provide you with what you need to achieve
this on a regular basis?The fifth aspect of professional management
is the development of information systems and models to predict
outcomes - this includes the use of trend measurement to predict
future performance, the use of problem-solving disciplines to
predict the effect of successful solutions, and the use of more
comprehensive models to predict the implications of decision
making strategies.Information is the lifeblood of effective
management. It is difficult to
dispute that some managers (very very few) successfully manage
without the rigour outlined here. Intuitive management is a reality
for some, but it arises from that managers ability to feel patterns
that we cannot see and which they cannot explain - and it is
almost impossible to teach.Our goal is to establish competence in all
our managers and that requires making those patterns more tangible
through models and information systems. It is rare to employ
a truly intuitive manager, and to do so makes the company vulnerable
unless it can provide the frameworks by which the rest of its
management system can replicate in some way the process of the
intuitive manager. There will still be a place for the intuitive
- but as the saying goes “Give a man a fish and feed him
for a day, teach a man to fish and feed him for life”. Do
you want your business to be dependent on one fisherman?There can be a role for the truly intuitive
manager but there are many cases where whole companies have become
vulnerable to them past the point of healthy development, and
have actually stunted their growth. The intuitive provides no basis for planned
improvement. In responsible 
management
it should be a measurable goal to achieve planned developments
of the performance of your information system.
Your information system should
be your objective mechanism for determining the growth of responsible
management within your business.
To understand more about 'Predict':
| Exploration | provides an understanding of the principles that underpin this aspect of the management process |
| Evaluation | provides a simple scale by which you might reflect on your own organisation's progress in this area |
| Tools | provides a brief overview of some of the approaches that are available to support further development |
Move on to 'Perfect'; Return to 'Systematic Management'
© Tesseract Management Systems Ltd 2003
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Case studies of success
Managing by Design
- a handbook of
Systematic Mgt.
(purchase on line)
Transforming performance through QFD
(insight)
Testimonials on systematic management
(for Predict)
Principles
Self-Evaluation
Tools